Are UK house prices falling in a changing market?

Opinion around the direction of house prices is as divided as ever. One thing’s for sure, there’s a notable increase in properties being either reduced in price or quickly coming back onto the market. But what does this mean for buyers and sellers?

Having experienced several recessions, it is easier to take a back step and view the market with some objectivity.

In any market that starts to change, the main difficulty is that sellers continue to assess their property value with the expectation of achieving last year’s premium price of around 15% – 25% above Home Report valuation. That of course is the key. The Home Report valuation which forms the actual ‘bricks and mortar’ valuation was being excessively exceeded in 2022. As the property market readjusts, this premium has now been massively reduced or has disappeared altogether.

So with sellers still looking for a premium and buyers looking for discount, the resulting gap makes it difficult to progress a deal.

Many of the price reductions and failed sales are as a result of sellers accepting conditional offers subject to the sale of a property. But with the change in the market, buyers who have made offers subject to a sale, find themselves trying to sell in a market which has changed beyond all recognition from the buoyancy of 2022. They have been caught short with their expectations of selling at a premium price. This has resulted in one of two things, either an attempt to renegotiate the terms of a purchase or to completely withdraw from the transaction. That property is then brought back to the market.

Some sellers who are committed to a purchase will then have no option but to reduce their own asking price and, in some instances, there have been several reductions in order to secure their own sale. Thus, it is being noted throughout the market that house prices are decreasing.

Asking prices do need to be realistic and viewers need to be aware that any offer which is subject to the sale of a property is rarely accepted. Once the realisation of this situation becomes clear, then sellers will commence marketing their properties before securing a purchase. This will help to increase the available stock levels which still remain extremely low.

There are obviously a number of other key factors which are influencing the change in the market. The fluctuating interest rates and the availability of competitive, long-term mortgage rates are all causing a knock-on effect. Add to this the cost-of-living crisis including fuel costs, food costs and the war in Ukraine, and it is easy to appreciate the hesitation and ultimately a lack of confidence in the market.

So, in answer to the initial question – are prices falling – the answer would be that asking prices and the high levels of expectation are definitely falling, but valuations remain stable.

 

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Future Agricultural Support in Scotland as at June 2023

The Scottish Government have provided some further clarification on the future agricultural policy we are expecting to see from 2025, as well as clarification on the future of other support schemes.

While Mairi Gougeon has promised there will be no cliff edges as businesses transition into the new support mechanisms, further detail outlining how some of the proposed measures and standards will be implemented remains outstanding. As anticipated, we are beginning to see further clarity on which direction agricultural support is going, with focus on the environment and climate change, and a move to more regenerative farming methods.

Basic Payment Scheme and beyond

New conditions for receiving Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) support will be introduced from 2025, before a new support mechanism replaces the existing scheme in 2026. We understand that essential standards will have to be met in order to receive BPS in 2025. These essential standards are focused on farming activity; climate response; biodiversity gain; whilst also safeguarding animal health and welfare standards and workers’ rights.

In 2025 farming businesses will need to start the transition to the new support scheme which is considered as a ‘stepping stone’ to 2026 and beyond, with the compliance requirements for 2025 BPS linking to Tier 1 for the new support framework. In practice, these conditions will include the following, but may have other items added.

  • the maintenance of existing cross compliance requirements as a minimum for future support;

  • the introduction of new protections for Peatlands and Wetlands as a new condition on basic payments;

  • the foundations of a Whole Farm Plan, including soil testing, animal health and welfare declaration, carbon audits, biodiversity audits and supported business planning;

  • the introduction of new conditions to the Scottish Suckler Beef Support Scheme linked to calving intervals to encourage livestock keepers to reduce the emissions intensity of their cattle production systems.

2026 support is likely to be structured on a tier mechanism, with Basic Support and Enhanced Support available as outlined below.

Tier 1: Base  – This will be the closest thing to a direct payment, guaranteed to all farmers and crofters who meet essential standards in farming activity; climate response; biodiversity gain; whilst safeguarding animal health and welfare standards and workers’ rights, as well as existing cross-compliance conditions

Tier 2: Enhanced – This tier will build on the standards established in Tier 1. It will focus on measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to climate change, and protect, restore and improve nature. These measures will also incentivise more sustainable and regenerative farming practices, with focuses on farming for a better climate and nature restoration.

Tier 3: Elective – This tier will be ‘optional’ and likely to be more specific to targeting a certain species or habitat, and will focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting to climate change, and protecting, restoring and improving nature.

Tier 4: Complementary – Funding in Tiers 1-3 will be complemented by providing applicants with access to support and advice, as well as continuous professional development (CPD) to help achieve the aims of the future support model.

Payment Regions

The Regions model will remain, but will be reviewed prior to 2027 to ensure it is fit for purpose within the new scheme guidelines.

Greening (for arable/other cropping)

Greening will continue into 2025 and from 2026 will remain, but may alter to better integrate into the new tier system.

Voluntary Coupled Support

Scottish Suckler Beef Support Scheme (SSBSS) and Scottish Upland Sheep Support Scheme (SUSSS)

Both of these schemes will continue in 2025 and 2026, with consideration still being given to how Voluntary Coupled Support will be delivered in 2027

New conditions will be introduced to SSBSS in 2025 linked to calving interval performance.

Less Favoured Area Support Scheme (LFASS)

This scheme is expected to continue to 2026 but changes may be introduced from 2025 to support the transition towards a more economically and environmentally sustainable model. Consideration is still being given to how this type of support will be delivered from 2027.

Agri Environment and Climate Scheme (AECS)

This scheme is expected to continue to 2026 to deliver elements of Tiers 3 and 4 until new Elective and Complementary Support is implemented from 2027. Some the options currently available through AECS are being considered for inclusion in Tier 2 so that more people can implement them.

Forestry Grant Scheme (FGS)

This Scheme is expected to evolve and continue to deliver elements of Tier 3 and 4 until new support is implemented from 2027. Some of the options available under this scheme are being considered for inclusion as eligible measures/activities in Tier 2 so that more people can implement them.

Planning for the future

Preparing for Sustainable Farming

This new grant scheme is already open for applications for helping businesses prepare for changes, with support for conducting carbon audits and soil sampling, support for animal health and welfare activities and access to herd data for Suckler beef producers through MyHerdStat.

Put simply, the scheme allows businesses to claim £500 for an eligible carbon audit, up to £600 per 100Ha of Region 1 land for soil sampling and £250 as a development payment alongside the first soil sampling payment for farmers and crofters to spend time on things that will widen their understanding of Nutrient Management Planning. In addition, there is funding available for businesses to select up to two (per year) animal health and welfare interventions, which include bull fertility, calf respiratory disease, liver fluke (sheep or cattle), roundworm (sheep or cattle), sheep scab, sheep iceberg diseases, and sheep lameness.

Applications are already open for the carbon audit and soil sampling, with funding for the animal health and welfare interventions expected to be available shortly.

Whole-Farm Plans

Whole Farm Plans will be introduced from 2025 as a tool to help farmers and crofters integrate food, climate and biodiversity outcomes on their holdings and inform where they can seek support from the future support framework. The intention of the Whole Farm Plan is to help businesses become more environmentally and economically resilient and sustainable, with productivity baselines for soil testing, an animal health and welfare declaration, carbon audits, biodiversity audits and support for business planning.

To discuss any of this further and what it might mean for your business, please contact a member of the Bell Ingram Rural Land Management team.

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OnFARM Podcast: Braemar Castle Community Restoration Project

In our second episode with OnFARM at Braemar Castle we hear from our Bell Ingram volunteers who spent a day on the hill at Invercauld Estate harvesting heather to be thatched on the castle’s fog house roof. 
 
We also hear from Brian Wilson who is one of the very few people still plying the trade of heather thatching.
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Meet the Land Agent

If you have a passion for travel and the countryside then life as a Bell Ingram Land Agent could be for you. We find out more about what the job entails, and routes into the profession from our Ambleside based Senior Associate, Andrew Thompson.

What is your background?

I am not from a farming background and my interest in surveying started back in the 90s doing work experience for a firm of land agents on Speyside. From those early experiences I realised that surveying could offer an opportunity to travel, learn about the built environment, the social/economic history of a people and a place. I preferred the opportunity as I saw it then, to be outside rather than being sat behind a desk.

What qualifications did you need to become a Land Agent?

I spent some time at the Royal Agricultural College at Cirencester but moved into private practice in Oxfordshire and then Dorset before finishing because working appealed more than studying at the time.

Through the experience route (five years of working) I enrolled and passed the Post Graduate Diploma in Surveying from the College of Estate Management in Reading while working full time in Leicestershire. This qualification then enabled me to do the APC (Rural) through the RICS, which I passed first time, whilst working in Inverness.

What’s been your career path?

I spent nearly four years in Dorset working on a traditional 12,500-acre estate which had six miles of world heritage coastline, a castle, holiday caravan park, plus a portfolio of farms, cottages and commercial interests. I then spend a short spell in London on the more commercial side of surveying but although well renumerated it wasn’t for me.

From there, I moved up to Leicestershire for three years undertaking a range of duties and tasks; then to Scotland and spent five years in Inverness working for one of our competitors. Much of that time was spent working for Crown Estate’s marine portfolio at a time where there was a lot of investment in community assets making local fish and shellfish business more sustainable, whilst encouraging tourism; early days of windfarms; the decommissioning redundant North Sea oil and gas assets. I was also involved in some of Scottish Water’s refurbishment projects. My work took me all over Scotland and I was a frequent visitor to Orkney and Shetland.

After that I worked for the National Trust in the Lake District (a National Park and what became a World Heritage Site) for a further five years before returning to private practice at Bell Ingram. My time with the NT was more akin to where I had first started out in the surveying profession down in Dorset where there was a large portfolio of farms and cottages to manage on a day-to-day basis but with a significant emphasis on the environment, the culture, the intrinsic historical context of Beatrix Potter, Wordsworth, Coleridge etc and a big interface with the general public.

What’s the biggest misconception of the job?

If you are considering a career as a Land Agent or Chartered Surveyor, you might not realise that companies like Bell Ingram tender for much of our work through framework contracts with the major utility companies. This kind of work – acquisition and disposals, compensation and claims, compulsory purchase and land referencing – is very different from traditional estate management or forestry but can be extremely rewarding seeing a massive infrastructure project through from start to finish.

My current role, for example, has been focused on a major water project insuring and providing water to the whole of West Cumbria over the past six years, sat alongside other utility and other private client work.

What do you enjoy about the job?

The scope for variety in the context of ‘surveying’ or ‘rural land management’ or alternatively the ability to specialise and be an expert in a specific discipline. One can be progressive and engaging, giving guidance and opinion on how best to manage land and safeguard it as an asset for future generations and as part of that it’s the travelling and the experiences generated in meeting new people that appeals to me. Working in different parts of the country, experiencing different challenges, putting context to them and sympathetically securing a solution for the client. Just because something works once, it doesn’t mean it’ll work elsewhere.

In my current role working on infrastructure projects, though not often acknowledged per sae – I enjoy the problem-solving element of the job, resolving complex issues to the satisfaction of both client and the landowner is often rewarding.

What’s your advice to those thinking of entering the profession?

The traditional route of university degree and masters followed by your APC and CAAV professional qualifications is not the only route into the rural land management sector. For private practices like Bell Ingram, this pathway is still considered the “gold standard”, but there are different expectations within the utility sector with more “on the job” training and development available to those who prefer a non-academic route or for those who wish to transition into the profession. As an example of this I came across was GP doctor who had a personal interest/hobby in rural sports and decided to take up a position whilst maintaining his GP hours.

Bell Ingram is hiring Land Agents across our business and locations. Find out more about the positions available and life at Bell Ingram at bellingram.co.uk/Work-with-us.

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OnFARM Podcast: Braemar Castle Community Restoration Project

Braemar Castle in Royal Deeside has been under scaffolding for many months – as it is being lovingly restored by a team led by the local community, with architecture support from specialists at Bell Ingram. In this episode – the first of two recorded at Braemar Castle – Monty meets vice chair of Braemar Community Ltd. Doreen Wood, director of stonemasonry at Harper and Allen masonry Steven Harper, and Iain Cram, senior architect and partner at Bell Ingram.

 

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Meet the Land Agent

Life as a Bell Ingram Land Agent is hugely varied and no two days are the same. We find out more about what the job entails, and routes into the profession from our Perth based Assistant Land Agent, Louise Finnie.

What is your background?

I come from a rural background, my family own a small beef farm alongside a residential and commercial property letting business. From a young age I had ponies and spent my time at my local pony club, making lifelong friends and enjoying all the activities that go along with that. When I changed school, extra-curricular activities meant that I no longer had the time required to continue with this but hope to return to the horse world in the future. Around this time, I also joined Young Farmers and continue to enjoy all the fun and friendship of the wider Association. I am currently Secretary of my club, East Fife, and on the committee for the Fife and Kinross District.

What qualifications did you need to become a Land Agent?

I hold a BA (Hons) degree in Rural Business Management awarded by Glasgow University in conjunction with SRUC.

Why did you decide to go into surveying?

I wanted a degree that would encompass both agriculture and property in order to build and expand my knowledge in both areas. Knowing this would give me a mix of both field and office-based work appealed greatly, while at the same time the great variety of work involved would mean that no two days would be the same. Being supported by a team with a diverse pool of knowledge such as is available within Bell Ingram was an important factor when looking for a graduate position.

Did you always want to do rural work?

Yes, finding something that fitted with my rural interests was important. I think if you do something you enjoy, then it no longer feels like work. I do not believe I could derive so much enjoyment from any other area of employment.

When are you hoping to pass your APC?

On completion of my four-year degree course, I have gone on to study for a further two years in order to complete my APC. Part of achieving this is the requirement to keep a two-year diary, logging in detail all my competencies. During the summer, I have to submit my chosen case study. In the autumn following that submission, I will be invited to an interview where I will carry out a presentation on my case study to the board of examiners who in turn will ask questions on both my case study and my competencies. I feel I am prepared and hope to achieve gaining my APC this autumn.

What do you enjoy about the job?

I particularly enjoy meeting with and speaking to clients which brings with it a perfect balance between field and office work. Rural surveying covers a vast range of topics so having two years to trial most of the areas is a great way to rule out, or in, which areas suit you best. Although I have covered a variety of different areas, so far, on completion of my APC I feel I would like to specialise in Valuation.

However, due to the changes taking place in the world, Renewables is an area I have not covered extensively but may investigate in the future. Next year I hope to continue my studies and work towards my CAAV exams, knowing once again I can depend on and will be ably assisted by the Bell Ingram team. Being made feel like a valued member of, and being extensively supported by, the Bell Ingram ‘family’ throughout every aspect of my training has undoubtedly given me a strong foundation and broadened my skill set, ideally setting me up for the future.

Bell Ingram is hiring Land Agents across our business and locations. Find out more about the positions available and life at Bell Ingram at bellingram.co.uk/Work-with-us.

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Optimism Returns to Farm Sales Market

Our Head of Farm Sales, Malcolm Taylor looks at the current landscape and the opportunities to be had in this year’s farm sales market.

Snapshot of the market

As we look forward to the 2023 farm sales market it seems only right to take time to reflect on the year that has gone. We all remember the highs of the spring and early months of 2022, which seen interest from new buyers looking for forestry and natural capital opportunities pushing land way beyond traditional values and some exceptional outcomes for our clients.

In 2023 the landscape looks different again. Stock levels remain low as rising interest rates, and the cost of money from the lending institutions increasing both act as deterrents. But there is no shortage of individuals looking to purchase good quality farmland.

Following the disastrous minibudget, we are starting to see confidence from investors return, particularly from down south. This is fuelled by growing awareness around how precious land is as a resource, be it for food production, natural capital solutions, renewable energy sources and the contribution to the wellbeing economy. 

An increase in the cost of inputs continues to impact the viability of some farming businesses and with a lack of any detail around Government grant schemes both sides of the border, it is inevitable that more farms will come to the market in 2023.  

What can you expect for your farmland?

Average arable land and the best pasture-land values have been relatively steady but there is still limited supply and continuing demand, especially where neighbours have the chance to buy. Private transactions remain popular particularly where speed and privacy are key, or if there’s likely to be a limited market.

The value of grazing and hill land, which has been fuelled by unprecedented demand from investors looking for commercial tree planting is perhaps steadying a little but is further bolstered by interest in natural capital, including peatland restoration and rewilding projects, although values are very site specific making it difficult to apply averages.

Price Per Acre

Best Arable £8,000 – £15,000

Commercial planting £5,000 – £8,000

If you are thinking of putting your farmland on the market, our Head of Farm Sales, Malcolm Taylor will be pleased to discuss your requirement. Email malcol.taylor@bellingram.co.uk or call 01307 462516.

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Reasons to be cheerful

While the Scottish residential housing market continues to be affected by a scarcity of stock, new data released by the online property portals give sellers some reasons to be cheerful.

While buyer demand is down by a third compared to last year’s buoyant market, it’s up 4% on this time in 2019. Plus, there’s been a bigger than usual New Year bounce-back in activity, making a much more encouraging start to the year than many anticipated.

Although average asking prices are still £8,720 lower than their peak in October 2022, after two months of falls, they have increased by 0.9% (+£3,301) this month. This is the biggest increase at this time of year since 2020.

January 5th saw the number of people sending a request to an estate agent to value their home – the third largest on record. In total the first week of 2023 was the busiest for home valuation requests since August 2022.

Carl Warden, Head of Estate Agency at Bell Ingram reports: “These national figures just released mirror the picture I’m seeing across Perth & Kinross. Although the supply of stock remains well below what I would have historically expected to see at this time of year, there’s no shortage of enquiries from potential sellers looking for market appraisals.

“Looking ahead I see no reason for house values to decrease in any significant way, but I think we are unlikely to see the big offers over the asking price that characterised the market in 2022. Instead, I predict the market will recalibrate and we’ll see a more realistically priced market emerging.

“Despite uncertainty over mortgage rates, inflation and the cost-of-living crisis, people are still looking to move, and if you get the price and presentation correct then there’s no reason why your property won’t sell.

“And for buyers, it is not always the ones with the deepest pockets who are coming out on top. Those who have all their ducks in a row, and who are chain-free, are often more successful than the highest bidder in securing their dream home.

“If you are looking to sell, then there is no time like the present. Using a prestigious agency such as Bell Ingram, with our property teams embedded in communities throughout the country, means we know the suitable buyers for your property and can secure a premium private deal if you so choose.

“Because we ask our buyers the right questions, we always secure the best outcome for our clients. We would therefore recommend that anyone who is thinking of buying or selling their rural property waste no time to get in touch with our agents to discuss your needs.”

If you are considering selling you home, farm or estate, our dedicated team is on hand to provide professional advice and expert guidance. Contact Carl Warden on 01738 621121 or email carl.warden@bellingram.co.uk

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The property market is still moving, are you?

The decision to sell is never easy, so let our local property experts help. Bell Ingram’s free market appraisal service will give you the confidence that we can achieve the best result for your property’s sale or purchase.

Drawing on over 120 years’ experience, we offer an extensive database which provides relevant, comparable evidence for market appraisals when marketing properties and matching buyers to suitable homes.

Take advantage of the strong market in your area. Book your free market appraisal online now at bellingram.co.uk

Our Team

Based in key locations across Scotland our agents have an in-depth understanding of the regional and national markets.

Carl Warden, Perth

With over 30 years’ experience in the prime residential rural sector, Carl runs Bell Ingram’s Estate Agency service. He works from our Perth office and manages Agency teams in Perth, Beauly, Oban, Forfar, Ayr and Aberdeen. From period homes to contemporary developments, he has a wealth of experience selling high value property as well as plots, cottages, farmhouses and farmland.

Carl is supported in Perth by Moira Webley and Johanna Wiseman. Well known in the local area, this expert team has developed excellent relationships with buyers and sellers and is able to offer a comprehensive and professional service.

Andrew Fuller, Oban

Andrew joined Bell Ingram following almost 15 years managing high-level private and commercial development projects in the United Arab Emirates. He brings a wealth of property management and investment experience to his role as Senior Associate Estate Agent managing Bell Ingram’s Oban office.

He is supported by a dynamic team consisting of Laura MacCallum and Mairi Kennedy, and between them they cover Argyll and The Isles and the Morvern Peninsula, focusing on the sale of premium, rural properties.

Joanne Stennett, Highland

Joanne manages Bell Ingram’s Highland estate agency service from our Beauly office. She offers professional advice and expert guidance to sellers and buyers across the region and the Outer isles where she has strong connections with the local communities.

Highly experienced in the assessment and sale of prime residential and other rural property, Joanne  is supported by Fiona Adam and Julie Connor preparing properties for sale and overseeing the marketing from launch to offer and negotiating property transactions.

 

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